Trivago’s Secret Weapon: Inflation Driving Comparison Shopping.

Its stock has trailed rivals since the pandemic began, continuing a slide that started in 2017. It peaked above $20 that year, but was lately trading at $1.65. Trivago has been hurt by Google’s expanded travel listings, which diverted some hotel seekers from metasearch sites. While Booking Holdings, the largest online travel agency, is now trading above 2019 levels, Trivago stock remains depressed.

Bookings directly books trips; Trivago uses a different commission model. Trivago remains below prepandemic sales levels. One reason: It cut advertising and other expenses to improve profitability. Still, operating 2022 profits are more than 50% higher than in 2019. “From our perspective, the stock is undervalued,” Tillman says. “We need to continue to work on improving that profitability and grow with the market. And if we do that, I think at some point the multiplier will go up, as well.”

Next Week

Tuesday 3/21

Nike
reports third-quarter fiscal-2023 results.

Adobe,

Nvidia,
and
Roper Technologies
hold investor meetings.

The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.2 million homes sold, 200,000 more than in January. Existing-home sales have fallen for 12 consecutive months to the lowest level in more than a decade, as sharply rising mortgage rates have sent a chill through the housing market.

Wednesday 3/22

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appears before a Senate subcommittee to discuss President Joe Biden’s fiscal-2024 budget proposal. She will testify on Thursday before a House Appropriations subcommittee, with the debt-ceiling battle at the forefront.

Chewy
reports fourth-quarter fiscal-2022 earnings.

Autodesk
and Hershey hold their 2023 investor days.

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 75% chance that the FOMC will raise the federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%-5.00%. Less than two weeks ago, following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish testimony in front of the Senate, the discussion on Wall Street was whether the central bank would raise interest rates by a quarter or a half percentage point at this meeting. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank has caused historic swings in the bond market, with yields plunging at the swiftest rate in four decades.

Thursday 3/23

Accenture,

Darden Restaurants,

FactSet Research Systems,
and
General Mills
hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.

Chevron
and
Elevance Health
host investor meetings.

Altria Group
and
Genuine Parts
hold their annual investor days.

The Bank of England announces its monetary-policy decision. The market sees it as a coin flip whether the BOE will keep its bank rate unchanged at 4% or raise it by a quarter of a percentage point.

The Census Bureau reports new residential-sales statistics for February. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000 new homes sold, 35,000 less than previously.

Friday 3/24

The Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for February. Economists forecast that new orders for manufactured durable goods will increase 0.6% from January, to $274 billion. Excluding transportation, durable goods are seen gaining 0.5%.

S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for March. The consensus call is for a 47 reading for the Manufacturing
PMI
and a 50.2 for the Services PMI. Both figures are roughly even with the February data.

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com